World Cup
Argentina vs Cape Verde Islands
Jul 03, 10:00 PM
1 – 1
a.e.t. 3–2
Argentina vs Cape Verde Islands
Match Result
Argentina Home Win→Draw
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5 2.5→2 (Under 2.5)
Both Teams Score
BTTS: No→BTTS: Yes
Recorded before kickoff · never revised after
Argentina Home Win
85%
Predicted score: 2-0
1Outcome Probabilities
Match ResultMatch Result (1X2)The traditional outcome market: Home win (1), Draw (X), or Away win (2). Goalence outputs three probabilities summing to 100% for every fixture.→
Argentina Home Win
85%
Over/Under 2.5Over/Under 2.5A prediction market that resolves Over if the total goals in the match are 3 or more, Under if 2 or fewer. Computed from Goalence's two lambdas: P(home_goals + away_goals ≥ 3).→
Over 2.5 2.5
55%
Both Teams ScoreBTTS — Both Teams To ScoreA prediction market that resolves Yes if both teams score at least one goal in the match, No otherwise. Goalence outputs a BTTS probability for every fixture by integrating the Poisson distribution over scorelines.→
BTTS: No
85%
Confidence: ELITE.
2Most Likely Scores
3Knockout scenario
Published only for knockout fixtures
This is a knockout tie: a draw after 90 minutes goes to 30 minutes of extra time, and if still level, a penalty shootout.
If it goes to extra time (30 min):
If it goes to penalties:
Based on the squad's recent penalty conversion; a shootout still comes down largely to chance.
On paper, the penalty-shootout favorite is Cape Verde Islands: 59.6%.
Pre-match Outlook
Goalence's Pi-Ratings model gives Argentina a clear edge against Cape Verde Islands in World Cup — 85% confidence (ELITE tier) with an expected scoreline of 2-0.
The model favors a one-sided sheet — BTTS no at 85% — pointing toward at least one team being kept off the board.
How the Model Works
We use an iterative Pi-Ratings model: each team has separate home and away attack/defense ratings, updated after every match. Lambda values are converted to outcome probabilities via Poisson distribution. Match result, over/under, and BTTS predictions are all derived from a single coherent model.
Argentina vs Cape Verde Islands — Argentina Home Win: 85%.
Predictions are produced by statistical models and cannot be guaranteed. Use as reference only.